The pot-holed road

Thoughts about India, the United States, and occasionally, the world at large.

Inclusive growth and its necessary corollary “inclusive loot”

leave a comment »

Ranjan Sreedharan

Thrissur, December 20, 2010

I have always been suspicious of this whole idea of “inclusive growth”. In fact, in one of my essays titled “The fallacy of inclusive growth” I make the point that you only have a choice between fast growth and slow (or less fast) growth, that in practice inclusive growth can only imply slower growth compared to your potential. Recent events in India have added a new dimension to this debate; we now have to seriously consider whether “inclusive growth” is also a façade for “inclusive loot”.

Now that the evidence is out, the logical link that binds the two together is not hard to decipher. Inclusive growth is all about spending huge amounts of public money, ostensibly with the aim of doing good to the poor of the country. In reality, the higher the outlay on such schemes, the greater will be the pilferage and the money lost to “leakages”; the more the budgeted expenditure, the more the money that gets siphoned off.

However, this is not all. A little thought would suggest that when you double the expenditure, the scope for pilferage would more than double, simply because the level of oversight and control that can be exercised over the money spent is not (indeed, cannot be) simultaneously doubled. What this means is that when government spending on any particular scheme is doubled (and in these days of the Sonia raj, there is so much of doubling and tripling all around) it cannot be accompanied by a doubling of the monitoring mechanism or the systems and procedures in place to check corruption. Therefore, where an efficient set-up restricts pilferage to 10 percent out of a budget spend of, say, Rs.10 lakhs, the same set-up would likely see a 15 percent siphoning off when expenditure doubles to Rs.20 lakhs. In this example, in the journey from a Rs.10 lakh spend to a Rs.20 lakh spend, the “leakage” increases more than proportionately from one to three lakh rupees.

There’s another reason why, given time, this would indeed be the case. The fact is, no-one is born corrupt. We become corrupt for a variety of reasons, perhaps the most important of which would be the examples around us of people who are corrupt and who appear to be merrily getting away with it. Because this conveys the very seductive message that it is possible to be on the take without having to pay any penalty. Now, link it to the environment created by an activist government where spending on multiple “welfare” schemes is forever on the rise and which, in turn, generates ever more examples of people around you who are merrily “getting away” with it. Corruption now becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sonia Gandhi was recently heard bemoaning the “shrinking of the moral space” in India’s political class today. Actually, a lot of it is intrinsic to the path she has laid out for the country and, therefore, is of her own making.

Finally, the real price is the country’s future that gets shorted. Despite the leakages, all the money spent does give rise to a sizable constituency of “freeloaders” who are privileged to live off the handouts from the government. Sooner than later, between the “freeloaders” and the “looters” (whose numbers are also substantial because loot takes place at the bottom of the pyramid as well), the numbers swell into a critical mass that becomes a powerful vested interest dedicated to maintaining the status quo, no matter what the larger costs are.

This then becomes a “reform” resistant country where the cracks (when they appear) are promptly papered over and bad policies keep piling up because any kind of course correction would involve making too many people unhappy. And since economics based on delusion has a strictly limited shelf life, matters cannot go on like this indefinitely. Typically then, reform-resistant economies “wake-up” into a nightmare with a full-fledged crisis on hand which now makes reforms imperative. All of a sudden, the political will to carry out reforms is also easier to muster. By this logic, India should soon be running into another “1991” moment, maybe not so severe, but serious enough to give rise to the next set of real reforms − as opposed to the tinkering that passes off for reforms these days.

I believe (and I am unable to resist this) I may have framed a new law about corruption in government circles. In my honour, let it be called Ranjan’s law of corruption in government.

Advertisements

Written by Ranjan Sreedharan

December 15, 2010 at 11:43 am

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: